Vaclav Smil on how our world works: Complexity, efficiency, common sense and a bit more math

In a wide-ranging interview for Celonis' Face Value series, Smil shared his insights on the complexity of modern systems, the importance of incremental efficiency gains, and the need for more common sense approaches to global challenges. After his comments, he sat down with me for an interview that included live questions from the virtual audience. The video, Creating a common language for how the world really works with Vaclav Smil, is available to watch on-demand.

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Complex, interconnected processes and the need to understand numbers

Smil began by emphasizing the immense complexity and interdependencies of modern technological and economic systems. He argued that most people lack a deep quantitative understanding of these complexities, in part due to education systems that don't emphasize scientific and mathematical literacy.

To illustrate this complexity, Smil used the example of electric vehicles. While often touted as a green solution, the mass production of EVs depends on securing large quantities of minerals and materials from around the world. The batteries alone can weigh 450-900 kg, making EVs significantly heavier than conventional cars. This increased mass requires more energy and materials to produce and more energy to operate.

Furthermore, acquiring many of the minerals required to produce EV components creates geopolitical dependencies. Smil noted that replacing the world's current 1.5 billion vehicles with EVs by 2050 would be an enormous challenge given these material requirements and political complexities.

Further complicating this effort is that people often lack a clear understanding of the numbers involved. Individuals may grasp numbers that they use in daily life, like the difference between it being 20 degrees Celsius and 40 degrees Celsius outside (68 and 104 Fahrenheit for folks in the US). But, when it comes to comprehending and comparing large numbers, like millions, billions and trillions, many people have no similar frame of reference.

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Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba, (left) and Bill Detwiler, Celonis (right)

For example, the International Energy Agency reports that there are 40 million EVs on the road globally. If the goal is to replace our current 1.5 billion vehicles with EVs by 2050, we need to produce and sell on average 56 to 57 million EVs every year. This is a tall order considering that only 14 million new EVs were registered in 2023.

To address this arithmetic deficiency, Smil encouraged education systems to place more emphasis on basic math. “There are no shortcuts,” he told me. “I mean, how do you become literate? Well, you have to learn the alphabet. So how do you become numerate? You've got to use numbers.”

Smil applied a similar analysis to wind turbines, noting that while they produce clean energy, their production still relies heavily on fossil fuel-intensive processes for steel, concrete and plastics.

Smil isn’t against efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels or produce clean energy, far from it. But he emphasized that we must approach the problem from a realistic perspective. That means considering the full lifecycles and material requirements of new technologies and fully understanding the magnitude of the challenge.

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Balancing innovation and necessity: The importance of incremental efficiency gains

When asked about balancing innovation with meeting basic needs, Smil cautioned against over-focusing on flashy projects, like Mars exploration, while neglecting fundamental needs on Earth. He argued that most progress is driven by gradual efficiency improvements to current technologies, for example:

• Commercial jet engines use nearly 60% less energy per passenger-kilometer than the first models in the 1950s.
• Gas turbines for electricity generation have improved from 35% to 65% efficiency.
• Steel production now requires only half the energy per ton compared to previous methods.
• Ammonia synthesis, critical for fertilizer and thus food production, now uses only one-fifth the energy of early processes.

These improvements were made through incremental gains that, while rarely headline-worthy, accumulated to produce massive benefits over time. Smil said that too often we focus on chasing the next breakthrough instead of optimizing existing core technologies.

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Vaclav Smil and Bill Detwiler discussing how the world really works at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.

The need for moderation and common sense

Throughout the session, Smil repeatedly stressed the need for more moderation and common sense approaches to consumption and technological deployment. He advocates for a "less of everything" approach in the developed world, arguing we've gone beyond reasonable levels of production and consumption in many areas. For example, we currently waste ~40% of food globally, and the proliferation of large, heavy passenger vehicles is offsetting many of the carbon benefits from the growth in the EV market.

By moderating consumption and making more rational choices, Smil argued, we could solve many problems without waiting for grand technological breakthroughs. Small, collective changes when applied globally can have a massive impact.

Understanding how the world really works

Throughout our time together, Smil emphasized the need for a more nuanced, quantitative understanding of the world's complex systems. He advocated for focusing on incremental efficiency gains in existing technologies rather than always chasing the next big thing. But above all, Smil called for more common sense, moderation and rational decision-making in the face of global challenges. Some consider his views a bit too cynical, but as he says, he’s neither a pessimist nor an optimist, he’s a scientist. And by understanding "how the world really works," Smil argues we can make better choices for a sustainable future.

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