The next shortage is predictable. Manufacturing just hasn't caught on yet.

Supply shortages that ripple through production networks to cause bottlenecks, delays, idle time, or even entire factory shutdowns are nothing new in manufacturing.

Automotive shutdowns in particular have made headlines in the last 12 months. Jaguar Landrover paused production in the UK due to a part supply issue, Stellantis halted production in Italy thanks to ‌an engine components shortage, and Honda suspended operations at some Chinese plants as a result of ongoing semiconductor supply problems.

But it’s not only automotive production that’s impacted. Solar panel manufacturers in India have had to down tools as they wait for domestic components to replace foreign imports, while LG Chem temporarily shut a South Korean plant due to difficulties in securing ​naphtha feedstock.

The root causes of these shortages are often things like geopolitical disputes which – assuming you’re a supply chain or plant leader and not a politician – are largely out of your control. The real problem is you can’t see these supply issues coming until it’s too late to take preventative action. You’re fighting supply chain disruptions after they happen, because your systems tell you what’s already broken, not what's about to break.

Delivering an end-to-end supply chain view

For the most part, systems used in manufacturing supply chains are isolated from one another so they only see one link in the chain. A system that just watches the shop floor or procurement, for example, only sees the disruption when it hits that part of the business. At which point it's already inside your operation.

To get one step ahead of supply issues, you need systems that can watch and understand your end-to-end operation, observing every handoff between supplier, plant, and customer. That way you can see disruption coming instead of discovering it when idle time or shutdowns are already inevitable.

At Celonis, we help companies address this challenge through the Celonis Context Model (CCM), which sits at the heart of the Celonis Platform. Building on our process mining roots, this extremely versatile operational context layer combines process data and business knowledge from across your systems, applications, devices, and interactions to create a dynamic digital twin of your entire supply chain operation. From this data and knowledge, it provides decision intelligence that shows you where supply issues will arise, as well as the actions you need to take to address them proactively and at scale.

And of course, with the context layer as a foundation, you can realize the immense potential of AI. Through the CCM, AI understands the unique connections within your supply chain, not a generic supply chain in an unrelated industry, and can provide intelligent recommendations for proactive action you can trust.

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Supporting sovereignty and interoperability

The CCM is system agnostic and unbiased. That means it’s interoperable with the systems that matter to you, whether your business is manufacturing cars, pharmaceuticals, electronics, or consumer goods.

It also means the Celonis Platform supports your digital sovereignty. It gives you control over what happens to the data and intelligence that lies within your business, and reduces your dependence on third-party technology providers. Some may see digital sovereignty as isolationist, but we believe it’s critical for being able to innovate, optimize, and collaborate at scale. As Carsten Thoma, President of Celonis explains, “True digital sovereignty is about agency: the freedom to decide how we act, how we innovate, and crucially, how we collaborate.”

In that spirit of collaboration, Celonis is partnering with the German American Chamber of Commerce. We’re bringing the best of German engineering, manufacturing, and software development to industrial collaboration between Europe and the US, at a time when that level of cooperation has never been more critical.

The Celonis Platform in action

Let’s explore real-world scenarios where the Celonis Platform, powered by the CCM, ensures you can predict and stay ahead of supply issues, mobilizing your disruption response before impact, not after.

Scenario one: Automotive assembly threatened by a semiconductor shortage

A geopolitical conflict causes a shortage of semiconductor-grade neon, or a change in tariffs increases semiconductor cost and reduces supply. Either scenario could disrupt production at your plant and put vital customer relationships at risk. Using the Celonis Platform, you predict the disruption, giving you time to prioritize critical orders, draw down safety stocks, and expedite alternative supplies well before a production run is affected. At the same time you can pursue longer term strategic initiatives, like nearshoring or accelerating investment into neon gas abatement and recycling to reduce your dependence on neon supplies.

Scenario two: Defense-adjacent manufacturing

With a growing defense division, you’ve become a tier one supplier of critical components for military aircraft, increasing the risk of your operations being disrupted by adversaries. With the Celonis Platform you can apply the same disruption-prediction logic that defense planners use for battlefield logistics, using AI and your digital twin to anticipate and rectify issues before they compromise the front lines.

Know what’s coming before it hits

As the manufacturing world heads to IMTS 2026 this month, the event’s theme ‘Achieve the Impossible’ seems particularly apt. Predicting the future may sound implausible but, as Michelle Edmonson, Vice President of Exhibitions for AMT so beautifully puts it, “What seemed unachievable or downright crazy in the past is tomorrow’s new baseline.”

The fact is your next shortage is already entirely predictable. But you’ll only see it coming soon enough to act if you can see the whole supply chain it travels through. Are you attending IMTS 2026? Come and talk to us about how the Celonis Platform and the Celonis Context Model can help you predict your next disruption. You’ll find us on Level 3 of the East Building.